One of the possible futures I see happening is things get actaully unconfortable: uncertiony about food, eletericy is spotty and expensive, (morden) climate control is expensive enough to be unused or broken for the majority of the population, governence breaks down signifgently, voilent gangs roam the cities till poeple flee that shit. For 3 or so years. Then things get very productive and sane.
This requires a few thoerys to justify and must be fairly reasonably predictive:
Biological systems have both negitive and postive feedback loops, human civilation is such a system.
a. Techology is *the* big postive factor.
b. Socail insanity is a very possible negitive feedback loop, capable of killings off a society.
c. Governence is a postive multiplictive factor, that can become a total state a negitive factor.
Wealth is largely detirmined by average productivity.
a. 1 person could maybe feed 2 poeple histically, maybe even 3 at the hieght of an empire; today its 1000 if not 10000. This suggests an average person could have considerablly more things.
b. Techology vastly increases producty(when socail insanity isnt in its way)
c. Techology can move between sane and insane societys.
Governence is ussally low mulpplier, but it does matter if its 0 or 1.
a. buercrazys produce nothing, no food or tangable resources.
b. I cant remember a single situation which I believe politics helped a situation.
c. states start wars, which consume reasources and can kill off all the sanity(by which I mean, even the good poeple who survive probaly have trama and abosrbed some insanity)
Humans are able to make sane systems, if rarely.
a. civilation did come from somewhere, step by step we did stop being child abusing, warring, tribal apes.
b. techology does exist.
Techology is fragile to the degree which it is complex, or new.
a. You can just lose techology.
b. Metal working and pottery seem able to survive even if writting didnt for large periods of time.
Socail insanity is here, its inmese and its growing
a. See everyone staying inside for 2 years
I’ll leave this allot of this up as an exersize to the reader, but suppose that computers break down on a fundemnetal level, but the ability to feed 1000 poeple with 1 person labor doesnt. And that america has been broken for 100 if not 150 years, and this has all been techology, while those orginal america documents are just there able to be read by grumpy poeple who are just capable of being grumpy the same way as the founding fathers.
To write it out properly with all the background I believe differently from other poeple conceptions would be like several essays, and no.
Its seems to me that there are exterme forces dragging soiciety down and lifting it; maybe the collaspe, is more a shattering and the fragiments will seed in firtile ground of a population that already can read and write; but things do need to be uncomfy enough to stop the growing insanity.