(minor) Prediction: America will have a "currency split" of some kind
I don’t know of a single historical example, I don’t know a possible mechanism, nor do I doubt that there’s extreme pressure to conform to a small number of currency’s, whether that’s specific super powers dollar or gold/silver.
But things that can’t continue forever, won’t.
America has two economies, the working class are being starved while this fake economy of real estate bubble land gets infinite printed money that is tried to land prices having infinite demand and limited and controlled supply. Soon there won’t be a middle class that has a house and has a small but extant stake in the housing game, this is leading to some minor extremism:
The very felt unfairness of working for the right to use a very tiny piece of land that other people got for free, eventually breaks down, and people… won’t.
What will this “won’t” look like… well who knows, but people usually start being actively and intentionally rude before full violence. One form of protest is to just decide to not value the high status(“I wont hire people who went to Harvard”, ”California avocado toast and Starbucks drinkers airn’t welcome here”) and with inflation and the job market, well isn’t *any* money a high status game?
It could be as simply as paper dollars can be traded for for informal labor and drugs, while digital currency is traded for land and bullshit office work, while america pulls an india and starts banning 20$ suddenly and in the middle of a work day, so that element of trade… just, continues with whatevers onhand. Maybe its bitcoin, maybe its socks of copper penny’s are treated as a day of work(cause silver dimes are too expensive), but informal labor will continue, while the unfair games that at at least as old as 2008(but realistically the newdeal) escalate.
So lets say 70% credence that a working class populous movement makes an active change to *their* money supply to desync it with the stockmarket/office jobs/realestate fake economy, in the next 15 years.
This includes the outcomes:
1. Bitcoin/doge coin adoption reaches 30% usage of people who go door to door offering to mow boomers lawns
2. Any precious metals, *including copper*; being tradable for a day of work
3. America civil war and there’s any 2 currency’s(i.e. Im wrong about violence coming fast and hard)
4. Working classes resorting to barter economies to feed themselves(I would think this is incredibly stupid on the part of working classes)
5. America banning cash, or a subset of cash; but drug markets not caring.
6. Government credit card with >20% cash back and ubi, but the worse spying and bank account locking for speech so there’s protests to still use cash from informal labor markets.
30% off odd of bandaid fixes, such as trump being elected, declaring real estate hedge funds are illegal, zoning invalid, and selling the western federal land in new cities for a gen Z middle class. Such fixes would be *extremely* wise and *extremely* popular, but I don’t think these are realistic given the undead in charge.
America has (at least) two cultures that increasingly don’t speak to each other and are having different economic outcomes, while a currency is a “stock” in an economy. That which can’t continue, won’t, qed.