Rough political predictions
Theres allot of really bad takes for how the american right wing will tolerate about war and the nature of nation states at play for the war on iran.
Politics is violence and the iran was a modernized Muslim pirate base; the fucking brucracates of the UN and EU do not fucking provide value. There no debating if the man who killed 30,000 protesters last month and lower the age of consent to 9 to match the pedophile worshiping religion deserved to die. What matters is how cost effective is the american public willing to bare.
A bit of a history lesson: The bronze age was ended by the “sea peoples”, the France and britian wars were fought by pirates (that they had to bribe with state mandated gf’s to get them to stop), the first american mil action was about fight Muslim pirates; iran designed its miltery to threaten shipping.
The american world police is maintaining trade with the threat of the middle east spreading piracy. I believe we should pull back from the fucking sand pit and let the fucking free loaders of europe, try their hand at suppressing the on going pirate infestation that the middle east will always be; go look at a map, Im in utah, imagine the trade routes, if I want to buy cheap shit from china how does it get to me? If I suddenly become a trillionare and want a dutch magic laser machine, how does that get to me? Its not thru the Suez. It doesn’t matter to me if iran is threatening ships with its 10,000 missile 1% of which can reach the suez (“iran missiles hit israel” is roughly the same range)
The rest of the american public doesnt have this mindset of letting a muslim piracy return in a controlled limited way to grow American power while cutting the major cost of fighting for fucking sand. So we will return to the middle east; trump however has tried a new tacit, decapitation strikes. This is an improvement to bush but its still a risk.
We use high tech to “just do things”, this gives trump the political victories he wants and has worked, 3 times now? I believe the new compromise will be “no boots on the ground” and “america needs industrial capacity” will be the talking point for the next decade. “Boots on the ground” will be weakened to not include special forces and any future robots. Prediction 1: Iran will not go that smoothly but the taboo of what “boots on the ground” means will be negotiated.
For some reason flying robots with internet access are easier then an rc car with a gun on it. Prediction 2: if anyone has any sense there will be a push to make fully american drones that are “mid-range”
Prediction 3: Cuba will be allowed to rot from lack of oil, we will send non-combat humanitarian aid in 3 to 9 months when some political happens.
Prediction 4: Ukraine war has reached a turning point, eastern Europe will drastically increase in support of american world police when iran drones stop going to russia.
Prediction 5: The american empires unstably is still fundamentally there but with a cheaper way a war the collapse is pushed back decades.
Prediction 6: when the ai bubble pops, the american empire will slightly nationalize silicone valley. (I believe this is in a few months and will look like “trump declares 30% of nvivida will be bought at X%” to thunderous bi-partisan applause) This will be terrible and make the fractal tech bubble world; increasing the moral hazard in the system even more. Effectively the america will be as “free market” as china.
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Not a prediction, the leadership isnt this smart: but if theres any policy that makes this all less awful, Id suggest grants for making lets say 200 small drone manufactures in america, copying the Ukraine drone market, if theres not a war going on have contests on tv of 100 on 100 drone football. When the ai bubble happens the stimulus looks at the nist cyptro contest and making 100 of those projects. Stimulating young technical labor rather then line go up gdp/stockmarket lies. That will stabilize the american economy and extend the empire power the longest I can see; our empire is very sick and mismanaged; it can collapse under its own weight.